Pakistan’s fertilizer industry is set to conclude 2024 on a positive note, with December urea sales expected to witness a sharp increase, according to forecasts from two leading investment banks. Despite this late surge, overall fertilizer sales for the year are projected to remain below 2023 levels.
Topline Securities and BMA Capital, Karachi-based investment firms, have both released optimistic projections for December 2024. Topline Securities estimates urea sales to reach 1.002 million tons, a 60% year-on-year increase from December 2023’s 628,000 tons. Similarly, BMA Capital forecasts sales at 1.000 million tons, reflecting a 59% year-on-year growth.
This significant uptick is attributed to strong seasonal demand during the peak Rabi season. Both reports highlight a 53% month-on-month increase from November 2024, underscoring the seasonal sales boost. Additionally, the December sales figures significantly exceed the five-year average of 857,000 tons, as noted by Topline Securities.
While the December rally is promising, it does little to reverse the overall decline in fertilizer sales for 2024, a trend that has persisted throughout the year.
